1. The inner simulation would create its own simulation (and recursively ever more nested ones) because the ancestor civilization it is based on also did.
2. Number of all Simulated Worlds > Non-Simulated World(s) ≥ 1
3. Simulated Minds > Non-Simulated Minds; a random selection of a conscious mind from totality of conscious minds in existence is more likely to draw a simulated one.
4. Therefore, if you are a conscious mind, it is more likely** that you are simulated.
** perhaps certain, like the chance you will not win the lottery is certain
A posthuman civilization would have enough computing power to spin up a our-universe simulation as easy as we can turn on an iPad. The number of conscious minds that exist in simulations would far, far outnumber those in the ancestor reality. Additionally, the "ancestor reality" may itself be a simulation, and their simulations should also be capable of being an ancestor to their own simulations. The recursive simulations proliferate exponentially. The resources necessary to simulate is cheap relative to the total resources of a universe; the simulations could be very deeply nested.at least one of the following propositions is true:
1. the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;
2. any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);
3. we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
You know that you are a conscious mind. But there is no way to know where you live in the hierarchy of simulations. So you take the null hypothesis. Assuming you are a random conscious mind of all the conscious minds, you are probably simulated. The whole world is.
Your only option as an unequivocal denier of simulationism is that all conscious civilizations (over all time and all universes—not just our Earth) have failed and will always fail to create a simulation. This reason encompasses the proposition that simulations are impossible. As soon as one civilization creates a simulation, suddenly #3 is activated without any doubt. If humans on Earth create a simulation in your lifetime, you are proven wrong; the lottery numbers are revealed. (Although one could still argue that, miraculously, he or she happens to belong to the first civilization in all of existence to witness as much, that would be as bold as lottery ticket buyer attempting to take out a loan against his assured future winnings.)